Independent research & commentary · Scotland · Evidence before assertion

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Independent Scottish research and commentary examining how public money is raised, distributed and experienced by the communities it is meant to serve.

Research paper / 001October 2026

The first paper

Waste
of Time.

The real odds of the Lotto. The good-causes question. And the case for knowing where your donation goes.

99.977%
Chance of no jackpot in 50 years*
*Two lines weekly
at current odds

From the research desk

One paper.
A bigger conversation.

Each paper starts with a specific question, examines primary sources and makes clear what remains unproven.

The first paper in numbers

Behind every headline is a question worth checking.

23p
Expected average of every £1 in National Lottery spending allocated to good causes.
8.7%
Scotland’s share of recorded UK Lottery grants awarded in 2024–25.
Unknown
The grant return per pound spent by players in individual Scottish communities.

23p is an expected average across all games, not an audited allocation of a particular Lotto ticket. Sources and limitations are in the paper.

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